"Arab World" unrest (eng)
Some months back, when the whole chaos started in the northern African countries, I started wondering a lot "why". Oil is a good reason, but the oil reserves are firmly in US/EU hands via the local dictators, monarchs or military regimes.
After the problems in the 80's, the same local regimes are now, if not friendly, at least restrained towards Israel. Why destabilize them? Why remove people in power in Egypt or Libya, when you know they will "play ball". My guess is that there is a big problem related to the relationship between Iran and Israel. Iran is a big destabilizing force in the middle east. They are not Arabs and don't see eye to eye with the "dream" of an Arab empire as it existed before the Ottomans came from the far east. In addition to that, they stated publicly that they want Israel wiped off the map.
In reality, there is little to no chance to avoid a military confrontation with Iran. The US and EU can't have the oil reserves under threat. Modern society would fall over night without oil. Its not a question of money as much as it's a question of survival. The Iranian leadership is not stupid either. They know that a move to change the Oil control would throw them in a corner. As a result, they play the Israel card. If they can attack Israel, or provoke Israel into attacking them, they have a good chance to push the Arab states in a Jihad against the "Zionists".
This is where, in my opinion, the role of the revolutions in the Arab world comes into play. When the time comes for the US/EU/Israel "war" against Iran, the neighboring states will be too troubled with their internal problems in order to get involved and push the whole conflict to a regional or even global war. Only time will tell if this is true or not and if the plan is good...
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/06/02/israel/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
After the problems in the 80's, the same local regimes are now, if not friendly, at least restrained towards Israel. Why destabilize them? Why remove people in power in Egypt or Libya, when you know they will "play ball". My guess is that there is a big problem related to the relationship between Iran and Israel. Iran is a big destabilizing force in the middle east. They are not Arabs and don't see eye to eye with the "dream" of an Arab empire as it existed before the Ottomans came from the far east. In addition to that, they stated publicly that they want Israel wiped off the map.
In reality, there is little to no chance to avoid a military confrontation with Iran. The US and EU can't have the oil reserves under threat. Modern society would fall over night without oil. Its not a question of money as much as it's a question of survival. The Iranian leadership is not stupid either. They know that a move to change the Oil control would throw them in a corner. As a result, they play the Israel card. If they can attack Israel, or provoke Israel into attacking them, they have a good chance to push the Arab states in a Jihad against the "Zionists".
This is where, in my opinion, the role of the revolutions in the Arab world comes into play. When the time comes for the US/EU/Israel "war" against Iran, the neighboring states will be too troubled with their internal problems in order to get involved and push the whole conflict to a regional or even global war. Only time will tell if this is true or not and if the plan is good...
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/06/02/israel/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
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